It's not easy to get a clear picture of downtown condo sales volumes. Real estate sales statistics are reported by MLS area, and the downtown area cuts across a few zones: Area 4 runs from Guadalupe to I-35. Area 1B runs from Scenic on the west to Guadalupe / Lamar. Both are bounded on the south by Town Lake and the north by 2222. There are also some projects south of town lake in Area 6. While most of the downtown units are captured in these statistics, there are also some units near the university, in Tarrytown, and in the other corners of central austin contained in area 1B and 4.

So what do the numbers show? Downtown condo sales grew from 2004-2006 by 33% while sales volumes in the larger Austin market grew by 27%. In fact, downtown condo sales as a % of all Austin condo sales actually shrunk from 31% to 25% during the same period. In 2006, a total of 619 condo units were sold in areas 1B and 4.

I draw three conclusions from the numbers:

- First, growth (and downtown condos as the % of Austin sales) is constrained by supply. While many new condo projects have been announced, very few have actually hit the market -- condo sales don't get counted until the project is complete, even though deposits may have been paid years earlier.

- Second, the market will change fast. The high rates of deposits on some of the large projects which have as many as 200 units or more, will cause these numbers to grow rapidly over the next three years.

- Third, at just 2.2% of the Austin residential real estate market (by volume) there is lots of upside for growth. As we'll look at in a future post, the real challenge will be in selling the large number of very expensive units currently being planned.

Here is the data (data from Alamo title):

Year	Downtown Condo Sales	% of Austin Condo Sales	% of Austin sales
2004	464	31%	2.1%
2005	600	29%	2.3%
2006	619	25%	2.2%

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