Exclusive: 30 Month Milago Sales Analysis
September 06, 2010 19:21 Filed in: Market Analysis
Over the last 30 months, 344 downtown Austin condos sales have been recorded on the MLS. Of these sales, an amazing 52 have been in the Milago -- more sales than any other downtown Austin condo project (360 is #2). Of course, MLS statistics exclude sales that aren't listed on MLS -- including almost all sales by the developer. As a result, the MLS statistics provide a clear picture of resale units but not initial sales.
When looking at resale volumes and quantities, the 52 Milago sales provide an interesting picture of the downtown Austin condo market over the 30 months. During this period, Milago sales volumes have decelerated from 2.1 sales per month to 1.9 sales per month and prices have dropped from $322 / SF to $266 / SF. The price drop occurred almost entirely in 2009. Fortunately for owners, prices have been relatively stable going into 2010.
Milago Sales Analysis: Sales Velocity
* Through July, 2010
2009 was a tough year for condo sales: average unit size shrunk from 1,041 to 954 square feet, average sales price shrunk from $337K to $258K, and average days on market increased from 79 to 91. In 2010, all of these measures improved or stayed the same: the % of ask and days on market both improved with ADOM showing the most progress as it jumped from 91 days to 72 days.
Milago Sales Analysis: Price Analysis
* Through July, 2010
The 52 transactions during the 30 month period came from 48 individual units -- a good portion of the building's 240 units. Fortunately, 3 units sold multiple times which allows us to compare prices over time in the most accurate way: looking at the value of the same unit through multiple sales. One unit, a 1,189 square foot 2/2, sold three times: once each in 2008, 2009, and 2010.
Interestingly enough, the multiple sales show mixed data. The two 2/2 units showed significant price decreases and the one 1/1 showed price appreciation. The first 2/2 dropped from $409K to $375K between 2008 and 2010 and the other from $350K to $305K between 2009 and 2010. The 1/1 showed price appreciation from $175K to $195K between 2009 and 2010.
The price appreciation in the 1/1 is not surprising --- there are very few units priced under $200K in modern downtown condo buildings. With the first time home buyer credit and a flurry of sales of inexpensive units over the last two years, demand has been pushing up prices on these entry-level units. Plus, while there were new units in the $300K to $500K hitting the market during this period, there was very little new inventory in the under-$200K price band.
Here is the analysis of the three repeat sales:
Unit One Repeat Sales History
1,189 SF 2/2
2008 $409,653
2009 $395,000
2010 $375,000
Unit Two Repeat Sales History
1,189 SF 2/2
2009 $350,000
2010 $305,000
Unit Three Repeat Sales History
756 SF 1/1
2009 $175,000
2010 $195,000
When looking at resale volumes and quantities, the 52 Milago sales provide an interesting picture of the downtown Austin condo market over the 30 months. During this period, Milago sales volumes have decelerated from 2.1 sales per month to 1.9 sales per month and prices have dropped from $322 / SF to $266 / SF. The price drop occurred almost entirely in 2009. Fortunately for owners, prices have been relatively stable going into 2010.
Milago Sales Analysis: Sales Velocity
| Year | # Sold | Units / Month | Avg SF |
2008 | 25 | 2.1 | 1041 |
2009 | 24 | 2.0 | 954 |
2010* | 13 | 1.9 | 1013 |
2009 was a tough year for condo sales: average unit size shrunk from 1,041 to 954 square feet, average sales price shrunk from $337K to $258K, and average days on market increased from 79 to 91. In 2010, all of these measures improved or stayed the same: the % of ask and days on market both improved with ADOM showing the most progress as it jumped from 91 days to 72 days.
Milago Sales Analysis: Price Analysis
Year | List $/SF | Sold $/SF | Avg Sold $ | % Ask | ADOM |
2008 | $339 | $322 | $337,752 | 95% | 79 |
2009 | $278 | $267 | $257,867 | 96% | 91 |
2010* | $273 | $266 | $271,872 | 97% | 72 |
The 52 transactions during the 30 month period came from 48 individual units -- a good portion of the building's 240 units. Fortunately, 3 units sold multiple times which allows us to compare prices over time in the most accurate way: looking at the value of the same unit through multiple sales. One unit, a 1,189 square foot 2/2, sold three times: once each in 2008, 2009, and 2010.
Interestingly enough, the multiple sales show mixed data. The two 2/2 units showed significant price decreases and the one 1/1 showed price appreciation. The first 2/2 dropped from $409K to $375K between 2008 and 2010 and the other from $350K to $305K between 2009 and 2010. The 1/1 showed price appreciation from $175K to $195K between 2009 and 2010.
The price appreciation in the 1/1 is not surprising --- there are very few units priced under $200K in modern downtown condo buildings. With the first time home buyer credit and a flurry of sales of inexpensive units over the last two years, demand has been pushing up prices on these entry-level units. Plus, while there were new units in the $300K to $500K hitting the market during this period, there was very little new inventory in the under-$200K price band.
Here is the analysis of the three repeat sales:
Unit One Repeat Sales History
1,189 SF 2/2
2008 $409,653
2009 $395,000
2010 $375,000
Unit Two Repeat Sales History
1,189 SF 2/2
2009 $350,000
2010 $305,000
Unit Three Repeat Sales History
756 SF 1/1
2009 $175,000
2010 $195,000