Texas A&M Expert: I See the Bottom!
August 20, 2009 22:27 Filed in: News
Mark Dotzour, the director of the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, has announced that the Texas real estate market has likely reached bottom.
According to Dotzour: “I feel now is the time to buy a house in most Texas cities. Housing affordability has never been higher, and I never thought I would see 5 percent mortgages in my lifetime. If you plan to live in the house for at least two or three years, now is the time to buy.”
The Texas A&M real estate center is predicting that 2009 will look a lot like 2003 in terms of volumes, listings, and inventory. Prices, however, are definitively higher with the 2009 estimated average price 20% higher than the price in 2003 and lower only than the prices of the last two years. The median price remains at an all time high.
Texas A&M Austin MLS Tracking with 2009 Estimates
According to Dotzour: “I feel now is the time to buy a house in most Texas cities. Housing affordability has never been higher, and I never thought I would see 5 percent mortgages in my lifetime. If you plan to live in the house for at least two or three years, now is the time to buy.”
The Texas A&M real estate center is predicting that 2009 will look a lot like 2003 in terms of volumes, listings, and inventory. Prices, however, are definitively higher with the 2009 estimated average price 20% higher than the price in 2003 and lower only than the prices of the last two years. The median price remains at an all time high.
Texas A&M Austin MLS Tracking with 2009 Estimates
Date | Sales | Dollar Volume | Avg. Price | Median Price | Listings | Months Inventory |
| 2003 | 19,793 | 3,899,018,519 | 197,000 | 154,800 | 10,340 | 6.6 |
| 2004 | 22,567 | 4,487,464,528 | 198,900 | 154,100 | 10,394 | 5.9 |
| 2005 | 26,905 | 5,660,934,916 | 210,400 | 161,300 | 8,965 | 4.3 |
| 2006 | 30,284 | 6,961,725,607 | 229,900 | 172,200 | 8,695 | 3.6 |
| 2007 | 28,048 | 6,910,962,480 | 246,400 | 184,200 | 9,833 | 4 |
| 2008 | 22,439 | 5,470,241,896 | 243,800 | 188,200 | 11,585 | 5.5 |
| 2009 e | 20,043 | 4,746,392,079 | 236,800 | 188,000 | 11,244 | 6.6 |
It's hard to know how Dotzour's prediction applies to the downtown Austin condo market. The downtown Austin market is less established than other markets and currently faces a surplus of newly constructed and planned units. This surplus, however, is driving unprecedented discounting. For buyers, it is a balancing trick: for how long will prices continue to go down and at what point will interest rates go up?